Thursday, September 11, 2008

Inflation up - Gross Domestic Product is really negative

This would explain why it is much easier to get a steak at our favorite family steak house in San Diego and it may explain why real estate agents who deal with higher end properties report a belief that prices are falling. The good times are not rolling like that did a few years ago in San Diego.

However, the are a heck of a lot better then parts of florida.


The Big Picture | GDP fails ‘commonsense sniff test’
To strip inflation out of the data, the government devises a "deflator" that subtracts inflation from nominal GDP. In the second quarter, that deflator was 1.3, a figure that was half what it was in the first quarter and tied with a 10-year low. Starting with nominal GDP of 4.6 and subtracting that 1.3 deflator, we get real GDP of 3.3.

If the government had used the same deflator as it did for the first quarter, 2.6, GDP would have only been 2.0.

Consumer inflation for July was the fastest it had been in a generation, moving up at a rate of 5 percent for the previous 12 months. Had the deflator been that large, we would have seen negative growth for the second quarter." (emphasis added)

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